Tag Archives: economic indicators

Use Economic Filters to Reduce Your Strategy Losses

When developing strategies, many systematic traders focus exclusively on technical analysis, with their primary focus on derivatives of price and volume.  A few traders add sentiment and breadth statistics to further enhance their models.  I suggest going one step further: … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prices and Earnings Diverge

According to FactSet, since June 1, the price of the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.4%, while the year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q3 has declined from +3.5% to -1.6%.  In other words, while analysts were reducing their earnings … Continue reading

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Housing Starts Only Bright Spot This Week

Housing starts were the only bright spot in another dismal week of economic data in the U.S. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from this week as well as an update on market conditions, including … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Recession Increasingly Likely

Economic releases were mixed in the US last week, but the overall trend is decidedly bearish.  The ISM Index value dropped to 49.7, well below the consensus expectation of 52.5 and almost four points below last month’s reading of 53.5.  … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Summary Market Indicator Score | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Fed Rides to the Rescue – On a Broken-Down Horse

The Federal Reserve announced today that they will continue Operation Twist through the end of 2012.  Given the ongoing problems in Europe and the widespread weakness in the global economy, the Fed was widely expected to take substantive action to … Continue reading

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More Weak US Economic Data Last Week

The US economic news continued to deteriorate last week, but the market was focused exclusively on the Greek vote and failed to acknowledge the latest economic developments. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from last … Continue reading

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A Very Bad Week for the Market

I have been focusing on providing a series of in-depth, educational articles to provide a foundation for future commentary, but the economic news was so bad last week that I felt compelled to address the current market environment.  The following … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Summary Market Indicator Score | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments