Tag Archives: market cycle

Recession Models and the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on November 13, 2012 by

Last week I introduced two new probit models to forecast recessions and the period between the market’s peak and trough associated with each recession – as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In response to that article, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices

Posted on October 28, 2012 by

In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Prices and Earnings Diverge

Posted on July 29, 2012 by

According to FactSet, since June 1, the price of the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.4%, while the year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q3 has declined from +3.5% to -1.6%.  In other words, while analysts were reducing their earnings … Continue reading →

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Housing Starts Only Bright Spot This Week

Posted on July 20, 2012 by

Housing starts were the only bright spot in another dismal week of economic data in the U.S. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from this week as well as an update on market conditions, including … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Secret Weapon of Technical Analysis

Posted on March 28, 2012 by

The vast majority of technical indicators perform a computation on the price or volume of an individual security.  While these indicators can provide valuable insights, most traders ignore the most effective type of technical indicators. 

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Posted in Economic Indicators, In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 24 Comments