No Non-Farm Payroll Forecast for December

For the past few months I have used a systematic model to forecast an estimate of the monthly non-farm payroll data, which is one of the most influential economic data releases.  Unfortunately, the Briefing.com current week’s economic data and consensus forecasts have been inaccessible all week due to technical problems on the Briefing.com website.  As a result, I will be unable to run and post the NFP model estimate before tomorrow’s non-farm payroll release.

As I mentioned last month, I am exploring the feasibility of building a neural network model to forecast the monthly non-farm payroll data.  I am also exploring the addition of a new variable to the existing model.  I will update you on my progress next month – before the January NFP release date.

Brian Johnson

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About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years.
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