Category Archives: Market Timing

No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Post this Month

I finished the VIX futures project and I am trading the new hedged VIX futures strategy. However, I am now working on a new in-depth options article and do not anticipate releasing new Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) model posts until after … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 02-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2017. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2016

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2016

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2016

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the October 2016 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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10-31-2016 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The October 31, 2016 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in … Continue reading

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 10-01-2016

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through September 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment