Category Archives: Fundamental Analysis

Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2017. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2017. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 02-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2017. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2016

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2016

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2016

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the October 2016 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Recession Model Forecast: 10-01-2016

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through September 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment