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Author Archives: Brian Johnson
Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast June 2020, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast May 2020, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2020, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast March 2020, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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New Coronavirus Model and the Economy
I included a brief coronavirus update in my most recent recession model post, but it has since become clear that the speed, breadth, and longevity of the coronavirus will be the principal determinants of all near-term and long-term asset prices: … Continue reading
Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged coronavirus, COVID-19, exposed, infected, infectious, model, recession, recovered, susceptible
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Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2020
Coronavirus Implications Before proceeding with the model results this month, I need to explain how and when the coronavirus (COVID-19) will affect the recession model forecasts. The coronavirus is an unprecedented, discrete, exogenous event that will severely affect the global … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2020, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 02-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast Januuary 2020, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading →