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Author Archives: Brian Johnson
Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2019. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2019. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast March 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2019. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 02-01-2019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2019. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast January 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast December 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2018
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast November 2018, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2018
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2018, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2019. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading →