Author Archives: Brian Johnson

About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years.

Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2020

I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2020

I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2020

I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2020

I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2020

I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Coronavirus Model and the Economy

I included a brief coronavirus update in my most recent recession model post, but it has since become clear that the speed, breadth, and longevity of the coronavirus will be the principal determinants of all near-term and long-term asset prices: … Continue reading

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2020

Coronavirus Implications Before proceeding with the model results this month, I need to explain how and when the coronavirus (COVID-19) will affect the recession model forecasts. The coronavirus is an unprecedented, discrete, exogenous event that will severely affect the global … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Forecast: 02-01-2020

I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment