Recession Model Forecast: 02-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2017. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model. This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. I added one new variable with surprisingly strong explanatory power at the end of February 2016. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 21. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Post This Month

Due to the demands of an ongoing VIX futures research project, Trader Edge will not publish a Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) model forecast this month.

The VIX futures project is much more complex than I initially anticipated. I have developed and am continuing to refine an integrated combination of risk, valuation, forecasting, and optimization models, which I am using to manage a new hedged VIX futures trading strategy.

Brian Johnson

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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2017

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model. This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. I added one new variable with surprisingly strong explanatory power at the end of February 2016. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 21. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

It’s Earnings Season Again

Exploiting Earnings Volatility

Exploiting Earnings Volatility

It is earnings season again, which is one of the best times to exploit earnings-related option pricing anomalies. Option traders are savvy, but Earnings volatility is a difficult concept and it affects every option in the matrix differently.When markets move, it is very difficult for market-makers to accurately apply the unique earnings volatility adjustments across the entire matrix. This creates value-added opportunities for option traders with the right tools.

Fortunately, there is a precise framework that quantifies the exact impact of earnings volatility on the value of every option. I introduced this analytical framework in my recent book, Exploiting Earnings Volatility: An Innovative New Approach to Evaluating, Optimizing, and Trading Option Strategies to Profit from Earnings Announcements.

"Exploiting Earnings Volatility also includes two Excel spreadsheets. The Basic spreadsheet employs minimal input data to estimate current and historical earnings volatility and utilizes those estimates to forecast future levels of implied volatility around earnings announcements. The Integrated spreadsheet includes a comprehensive volatility model that simultaneously integrates and quantifies every component of real-world implied volatility, including earnings volatility. This powerful tool allows the reader to identify the precise level of over or undervaluation of every option in the matrix and to accurately forecast future option prices and option strategy profits and losses before and after earnings announcements. The Integrated spreadsheet even includes an optimization tool designed to identify the option strategy with the highest level of return per unit of risk, based on the user’s specific assumptions."

After releasing Exploiting Earnings Volatility last year, I made a breakthrough in applying these tools in my own proprietary trading. Continue reading

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No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast This Month

Due to the demands of an ongoing research project related to VIX futures, Trader Edge will not publish a Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) model forecast this month. I expect to resume publishing NFP model forecasts next month.

Brian Johnson

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Posted in Economic Indicators, NFP Forecasting Model | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2016

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model. This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. I added one new variable with surprisingly strong explanatory power at the end of February 2016. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined together, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 21. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Amazon E-Book Image Problem Resolved

Some readers experienced problems displaying e-book images in my new in-depth (100+ page) article, Option Income Strategy Trade Filters: An In-Depth Article Demonstrating the Use of Trade Filters to Enhance Returns and Reduce Risk.

I finally got a response from Amazon today. It appears that Amazon has corrected the problem. The new version displays the text and images correctly in all pre-publication and post-publication (look inside) viewers. Amazon does not provide the publisher a means of testing the e-book after publication, but the image problem appears to be resolved. Continue reading

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Posted in OIS Universal Filter, Option Income Strategy Trade Filters, Options, Recommended Reading, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Still Waiting on Amazon Response: E-Book Conversion

Some readers have experienced problems displaying e-book images in my new in-depth (100+ page) article, Option Income Strategy Trade Filters: An In-Depth Article Demonstrating the Use of Trade Filters to Enhance Returns and Reduce Risk. I sincerely apologize for the inconvenience.

Amazon has concluded that its conversion program is the probable cause of the problem, not the file format. Unfortunately, I am still waiting for them to resolve this issue. While Amazon is working to correct this problem, the Kindle ($9.99) version will be unavailable. However, the print ($14.99) version is still available via Amazon. Continue reading

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