The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.
Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading