Author Archives: Brian Johnson

About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years. I have also written four books on options and derivative strategies.

China’s Prices & Profits Diverge

Posted on July 27, 2015 by

I have written several articles about China recently, but I have just begun to scratch the surface of the problems. Data suggests that China’s equity market is still massively overvalued, even after the recent correction. In a recent MarkeWatch article … Continue reading →

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Troubling Divergence Between Stock and Commodity Prices

Posted on July 27, 2015 by

It is logical to expect that commodity prices and equity prices are causally linked. It is simply a question of supply and demand. In an expanding economy, demand for commodities should increase and in a contracting economy, demand should decrease. … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2015

Posted on July 23, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

China’s Make-Believe Stock Market

Posted on July 12, 2015 by

I continue to be shocked by ever new article that I read on China. I found a new tidbit of information in the following Bloomberg Business article by Paul Smith: “China’s Stock Market Selloff Explained in Six Charts.” In reading … Continue reading →

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More Stunning Developments in China

Posted on July 8, 2015 by

I could not believe the headline of the following MarketWatch article, so I had to pass it along to Trader Edge Readers: “China companies rush to suspend their shares; more than 40% of all stocks now in halt.” The author … Continue reading →

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Oil Futures Down Over 7% Yesterday

Posted on July 7, 2015 by

In addition to posts related to my own research, I am beginning to pass along links to timely articles that are important in the context of the market or offer some new insights. For each article, I will also include … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recommended Reading | 1 Comment

Desperate Moves in China

Posted on July 6, 2015 by

Now that my new book has been published, I am beginning to catch up on my very long list of outstanding research projects. In addition, I am also finding more time to read timely articles, a few of which I … Continue reading →

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No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast This Week

Posted on July 2, 2015 by

My apologies, but I did not realize that Friday was the observed market holiday for the fourth of July in 2015 and that the June Non-Farm Payroll report would be released early (today – Thursday morning). As a result, there … Continue reading →

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