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Tag Archives: Trader Edge
Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2017
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2017. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast March 2017, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2017
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2017. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2017, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Post this Month
I finished the VIX futures project and I am trading the new hedged VIX futures strategy. However, I am now working on a new in-depth options article and do not anticipate releasing new Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) model posts until after … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast: 02-01-2017
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2017. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast January 2017, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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No Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Post This Month
Due to the demands of an ongoing VIX futures research project, Trader Edge will not publish a Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) model forecast this month. The VIX futures project is much more complex than I initially anticipated. I have developed and … Continue reading
It’s Earnings Season Again
It is earnings season again, which is one of the best times to exploit earnings-related option pricing anomalies. Option traders are savvy, but Earnings volatility is a difficult concept and it affects every option in the matrix differently.When markets move, … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast November 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2017
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading →