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Category Archives: Article Links – External
Declining Earnings in an Overvalued Market
Earnings are the single most important factor in stock valuation. Stock prices may diverge temporarily from earnings, but prices eventually correct. FACSET is one of the leading providers of software, research, analytical tools, and data for investment professionals. They publish a … Continue reading
Bearish Market Breadth
Market breadth is one of the most reliable leading indicators of market reversals and major market turning points; breadth looks particularly ugly right now. There are many different ways to look at market breadth; we will review several in this … Continue reading
Overvalued Equities Suggest 58.9% Decline
There is a big difference between correlation and causation. When I research data relationships, I always look for plausible, underlying cause and effect relationships. One such relationship is between valuation and future returns, particularly before recessions. Doug Short’s recent article … Continue reading
Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril
In yesterday’s MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” Brett Arends reported that “Since the start of June the yield on the benchmark junk bond index, the Barclays High-Yield Index, has spiked alarmingly as prices have fallen. In practical … Continue reading
China’s Equity Futures Volume Drops 99 Percent
In this morning’s Bloomberg.com article titled “China Just Killed the World’s Biggest Stock-Index Futures Market,” Kyoungwha Kim reported that “Volumes in the country’s CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index futures sank to record lows on Tuesday after falling 99 percent from … Continue reading
Dominos Beginning to Fall
I wrote two series of cautionary articles, one in the past few days, and the other in September 2015. Several of the earlier articles referenced China, which is again in focus due to the 7% plunge on Monday. China’s manipulated … Continue reading →