Category Archives: Article Links – External

Links to Interesting Articles on Other Sites

Dominos Beginning to Fall

I wrote two series of cautionary articles, one in the past few days, and the other in September 2015. Several of the earlier articles referenced China, which is again in focus due to the 7% plunge on Monday. China’s manipulated … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

8 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge

Happy New Year! As I mentioned in my holiday greeting, I had to deal with a number of issues in 2015 that limited my research (and writing) efforts. As a result, I had a backlog of several important market-related insights … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Declining Earnings in an Overvalued Market

Earnings are the single most important factor in stock valuation. Stock prices may diverge temporarily from earnings, but prices eventually correct. FACSET is one of the leading providers of software, research, analytical tools, and data for investment professionals. They publish a … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Earnings, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Most Bearish Reading in History

The crowds are often wrong at extremes, but there are a few groups of traders who have a proven track record of calling market turning points. They are the “smart money.” When smart money positions become extreme, everyone should pay … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Bearish Market Breadth

Market breadth is one of the most reliable leading indicators of market reversals and major market turning points; breadth looks particularly ugly right now. There are many different ways to look at market breadth; we will review several in this … Continue reading

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Overvalued Equities Suggest 58.9% Decline

There is a big difference between correlation and causation. When I research data relationships, I always look for plausible, underlying cause and effect relationships. One such relationship is between valuation and future returns, particularly before recessions. Doug Short’s recent article … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril

In yesterday’s MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” Brett Arends reported that “Since the start of June the yield on the benchmark junk bond index, the Barclays High-Yield Index, has spiked alarmingly as prices have fallen. In practical … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

China’s Equity Futures Volume Drops 99 Percent

In this morning’s Bloomberg.com article titled “China Just Killed the World’s Biggest Stock-Index Futures Market,” Kyoungwha Kim reported that “Volumes in the country’s CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index futures sank to record lows on Tuesday after falling 99 percent from … Continue reading

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