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Category Archives: Recession Forecasting Model
Recession Model Forecast: 07012019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through June 2019. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast June 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 06012019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through May 2019. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast May 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 05012019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through April 2019. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 04012019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through March 2019. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast March 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 03012019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through February 2019. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 02012019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through January 2019. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast January 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 01012019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through December 2018. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast December 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 08012019
In addition to my fulltime proprietary trading and research efforts, I have been teaching parttime as a Professor of the Practice at University of North Carolina’s KenanFlagler Business School. I taught four courses in the 20182019 academic year: one fullyear … Continue reading →