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Tag Archives: non-farm payroll
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2012
I introduced a simple non-farm payroll forecasting model last month. Since then, I have revised the model, which improved the fit and reduced the standard error. This article explains the current forecast for the October non-farm payroll data, which will … Continue reading
Anomalies in Recent Employment Data
There have been some strange and contradictory economic data released recently. The following post examines some of these anomalies and discusses the implications for the market.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2012
The monthly non-farm payroll or employment report is arguably one of the most influential economic releases in the US. While it may not be the best leading economic indicator, it does move the market. I have been surprised by the … Continue reading
Jobs Report: Good News and Bad News
The market was clearly thrilled with the +163K non-farm payroll (NFP) number on Friday morning. Equity markets were up worldwide, as were most commodities. The NFP number was much better than the consensus estimate of +100K, although the estimate of … Continue reading
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast – November 2012
I introduced a simple non-farm payroll forecasting model a few months ago and revised the model last month. The revisions improved the fit and reduced the standard error. Going forward, I may also attempt to build a neural network model … Continue reading →