Tag Archives: recession

New Coronavirus Model and the Economy

Posted on April 1, 2020 by

I included a brief coronavirus update in my most recent recession model post, but it has since become clear that the speed, breadth, and longevity of the coronavirus will be the principal determinants of all near-term and long-term asset prices: … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Now Shrinking

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

In November of 2015, I reported that U.S. Manufacturing was at Recession Levels, but the news has gotten worse. The Manufacturing sector is now shrinking.

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Global Trade at Recession Levels

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

My last two posts focused on bearish divergences in the equity markets, but there are several fundamental factors that are equally bearish. The following article focuses on global trade. 

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Junk Bond Meltdown

Posted on December 29, 2015 by

I initially discussed the implications of widening junk bond spreads in a prescient September 2015 post titled “Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril,” which was inspired by a MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” written by … Continue reading →

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US Manufacturing Data at Recession Levels

Posted on November 18, 2015 by

I read an interesting article by Jill Mislinski on AdvisorPerspectives.com. The article was titled “Empire State Manufacturing Declined for Fourth Consecutive Month.” The takeaway from the article is that US Manufacturing is slowing at a rate not seen since the … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

More Warnings Signs in China

Posted on November 9, 2015 by

The manipulated equity markets in China have rebounded (which is what happens when you restrict selling), but the problems continue. China’s exports and imports have been declining for months, which is further evidence of recession and directly contradicts the “official” … Continue reading →

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Overvalued Equities Suggest 58.9% Decline

Posted on September 25, 2015 by

There is a big difference between correlation and causation. When I research data relationships, I always look for plausible, underlying cause and effect relationships. One such relationship is between valuation and future returns, particularly before recessions. Doug Short’s recent article … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril

Posted on September 9, 2015 by

In yesterday’s MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” Brett Arends reported that “Since the start of June the yield on the benchmark junk bond index, the Barclays High-Yield Index, has spiked alarmingly as prices have fallen. In practical … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | 2 Comments