Category Archives: Market Commentary

Scary Long-Term Outlook for US Equity Returns

Posted on August 8, 2015 by

According to a recent Mark Hulbert article for MarketWatch, the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.” I do not put much stock in long-term market prognostications, but I do believe in long-term … Continue reading →

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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – July 2015

Posted on August 6, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the July 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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China’s Prices & Profits Diverge

Posted on July 27, 2015 by

I have written several articles about China recently, but I have just begun to scratch the surface of the problems. Data suggests that China’s equity market is still massively overvalued, even after the recent correction. In a recent MarkeWatch article … Continue reading →

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Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2015

Posted on July 23, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →

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China’s Make-Believe Stock Market

Posted on July 12, 2015 by

I continue to be shocked by ever new article that I read on China. I found a new tidbit of information in the following Bloomberg Business article by Paul Smith: “China’s Stock Market Selloff Explained in Six Charts.” In reading … Continue reading →

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More Stunning Developments in China

Posted on July 8, 2015 by

I could not believe the headline of the following MarketWatch article, so I had to pass it along to Trader Edge Readers: “China companies rush to suspend their shares; more than 40% of all stocks now in halt.” The author … Continue reading →

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Oil Futures Down Over 7% Yesterday

Posted on July 7, 2015 by

In addition to posts related to my own research, I am beginning to pass along links to timely articles that are important in the context of the market or offer some new insights. For each article, I will also include … Continue reading →

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Desperate Moves in China

Posted on July 6, 2015 by

Now that my new book has been published, I am beginning to catch up on my very long list of outstanding research projects. In addition, I am also finding more time to read timely articles, a few of which I … Continue reading →

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