Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2019

Posted on January 20, 2019 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2018

Posted on December 21, 2018 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2018

Posted on November 17, 2018 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 10-01-2018

Posted on October 27, 2018 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through September 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 09-01-2018

Posted on September 15, 2018 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through August 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2018

Posted on August 25, 2018 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2018

Posted on July 29, 2018 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2018

Posted on June 30, 2018 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2018. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment