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Category Archives: Strategy Development
Recession Model Forecast: 11012019
The following article updates the diffusion indices, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through October 2019. The current 26variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 10012019
The following article updates the diffusion indices, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through September 2019. The current 26variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast September 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 09012019
As I mentioned last month, I will be teaching the MBA derivatives class again for the University of North Carolina’s KenanFlagler Business School (KFBS). I reduced my teaching schedule this year to a single MBA derivatives class, which begins next … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast August 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 08012019
In addition to my fulltime proprietary trading and research efforts, I have been teaching parttime as a Professor of the Practice at University of North Carolina’s KenanFlagler Business School. I taught four courses in the 20182019 academic year: one fullyear … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast July 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 02012019
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through January 2019. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast January 2019, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 11012018
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through October 2018. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2018, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 08012018
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through July 2018. The current 21variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peaktrough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast July 2018, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
Leave a comment
Recession Model Forecast: 12012019
The following article updates the diffusion indices, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peaktrough model through November 2019. The current 26variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables … Continue reading →