Tag Archives: fiscal cliff

Recession Models and the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on November 13, 2012 by

Last week I introduced two new probit models to forecast recessions and the period between the market’s peak and trough associated with each recession – as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In response to that article, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Recession Increasingly Likely

Posted on July 7, 2012 by

Economic releases were mixed in the US last week, but the overall trend is decidedly bearish.  The ISM Index value dropped to 49.7, well below the consensus expectation of 52.5 and almost four points below last month’s reading of 53.5.  … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Summary Market Indicator Score | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments