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Tag Archives: market cycle
Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices
In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development
Tagged Capital Spectator, diffusion index, economic cycle, market cycle, probit model, recession, recession forecasting, recession modeling, systematic strategy, trader, trading
5 Comments
Prices and Earnings Diverge
According to FactSet, since June 1, the price of the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.4%, while the year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q3 has declined from +3.5% to -1.6%. In other words, while analysts were reducing their earnings … Continue reading
Housing Starts Only Bright Spot This Week
Housing starts were the only bright spot in another dismal week of economic data in the U.S. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from this week as well as an update on market conditions, including … Continue reading
The Secret Weapon of Technical Analysis
The vast majority of technical indicators perform a computation on the price or volume of an individual security. While these indicators can provide valuable insights, most traders ignore the most effective type of technical indicators.
Posted in Economic Indicators, In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis
Tagged advance decline line, market breadth, market cycle, market reversal, moving average, overbought, oversold, percent bullish, technical analysis, trend following
24 Comments
Recession Models and the Fiscal Cliff
Last week I introduced two new probit models to forecast recessions and the period between the market’s peak and trough associated with each recession – as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In response to that article, … Continue reading →