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Tag Archives: market cycle
Last week I introduced two new probit models to forecast recessions and the period between the market’s peak and trough associated with each recession – as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In response to that article, … Continue reading
In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading
According to FactSet, since June 1, the price of the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.4%, while the year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q3 has declined from +3.5% to -1.6%. In other words, while analysts were reducing their earnings … Continue reading
Housing starts were the only bright spot in another dismal week of economic data in the U.S. The following post provides an overview of the major economic releases from this week as well as an update on market conditions, including … Continue reading
The vast majority of technical indicators perform a computation on the price or volume of an individual security. While these indicators can provide valuable insights, most traders ignore the most effective type of technical indicators.