Tag Archives: market timing

Systematic Strategy Favors Cash Over Stocks

Volatility has increased significantly in the last few weeks and traders are now in panic mode. The best way to avoid panic is to use a simple, systematic, back-tested strategy that has proven to to be successful over decades. In … Continue reading

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Equity Market Snapshot 01-23-2015

The recent increase in volatility has raised serious concerns among many traders and investors. The following article applies several different technical indicators to the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the daily and monthly time frames. This article will replace the … Continue reading

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Posted in Equity Market Snapshot, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Equity Market Snapshot 10-15-2014

The recent sell-off in the equity markets and the dramatic increase in volatility has raised serious concerns among many traders and investors. The fact that the sell-off is occurring in October and the expansion is in its fifth year has … Continue reading

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Bested by Rats and Pigeons!

I am a staunch advocate of systematic or rule-based strategies and humans excel at pattern recognition, which would seem to give us an advantage in developing these types of strategies. Unfortunately, we might be a little too proficient. We tend … Continue reading

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Posted in Strategy Development | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Equity Market Snapshot 08-21-2014

There has been a lot of confusion lately regarding the direction of the market and the risk of a major correction.  The following article applies several different technical indicators to the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) in both the daily and … Continue reading

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Posted in Equity Market Snapshot, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Overcome the Odds

I heard something remarkable this morning that reminded me just how ill-suited the human brain is for making investment decisions. The inherent decision-making deficiencies that we all share are well documented in decades of behavioral economics and behavioral finance studies, … Continue reading

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

A New Market Timing Indicator

I am always on the lookout for new trading tools, indicators, and insights.  One of my primary sources of inspiration is magazines like Active Trader and Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. Now that I have finished my first book, … Continue reading

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Posted in Market Timing, Options, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Relative Strength Indicator Predicted Current Pullback

The weekly relative strength market timing indicator (RSMTI) signaled the current equity market pullback on January 24, 2014 when the indicator crossed below its 21-week moving average.  The daily RSMTI provides earlier signals than the weekly RSMTI and is more … Continue reading

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