Tag Archives: recession forecasting

A New Recession Slack Indicator

Posted on January 1, 2013 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October.  I have since developed several recession forecasting tools that I created by applying probit, logit, and neural network models to a diffusion index of economic and market-related variables.  This article … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , | 31 Comments

U.S. Recession Risk Jumps 20% in November

Posted on December 10, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October and have since developed several recession forecasting tools that I created by applying probit, logit, and neural network models to a diffusion index of economic and market-related variables.  If you … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Improvements

Posted on November 21, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October with a discussion of Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend index, which I used as a foundation for two new recession forecasting models. Last week I explained the potential limitations of forecasting … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Recession Models and the Fiscal Cliff

Posted on November 13, 2012 by

Last week I introduced two new probit models to forecast recessions and the period between the market’s peak and trough associated with each recession – as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In response to that article, … Continue reading →

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New Probit Models: U.S. Recession Risk is Currently Low

Posted on November 8, 2012 by

Last week I wrote about using statistical tools to forecast recessions and referenced James Picerno, who provided the inspiration for this idea through his articles on the Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI) and the use of probit models to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices

Posted on October 28, 2012 by

In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments