Tag Archives: Trader Edge

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – June 2013

Posted on July 4, 2013 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the June 2013 non-farm payroll data, which will be released tomorrow morning.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Risk Remained Low in May

Posted on June 20, 2013 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2013.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

April 2013: Most Extreme Investor Leverage Since 2001 Bubble

Posted on June 13, 2013 by

In a recent article “Earnings-Price Divergence Always Followed by Negative Returns,” I noted that every extreme divergence (-20% or lower) between year-over-year corporate profits and equity prices in the past 50 plus years was followed by negative year-over-year equity returns.  … Continue reading →

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Non-farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – May 2013

Posted on June 6, 2013 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the May 2013 non-farm payroll data, which will be released tomorrow morning.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Models Indicate Risk Remained Low in April

Posted on May 16, 2013 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2013.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

March Recession Model Forecast Increases Slightly

Posted on April 11, 2013 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2013.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

February Recession Model Forecast a Surprise

Posted on March 14, 2013 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2013.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Overbought – But Wait for the Trend Change

Posted on February 14, 2013 by

I introduced the concept of market breadth in a post titled “The Secret Weapon of Technical Analysis.” Based on current breadth readings, the equity market is overbought and due for a pullback.  However, trading against the trend has a low … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments