Author Archives: Brian Johnson

About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years. I have also written four books on options and derivative strategies.

Earnings Season is Here

It is earnings season again, which is one of the best times to exploit earnings-related option pricing anomalies. Option traders are savvy, but Earnings volatility is a difficult concept and it affects every option in the matrix differently.When markets move, … Continue reading

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Posted in Earnings, Options, Recommended Reading | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – December 2015

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the December 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dominos Beginning to Fall

I wrote two series of cautionary articles, one in the past few days, and the other in September 2015. Several of the earlier articles referenced China, which is again in focus due to the 7% plunge on Monday. China’s manipulated … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

8 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge

Happy New Year! As I mentioned in my holiday greeting, I had to deal with a number of issues in 2015 that limited my research (and writing) efforts. As a result, I had a backlog of several important market-related insights … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Declining Earnings in an Overvalued Market

Earnings are the single most important factor in stock valuation. Stock prices may diverge temporarily from earnings, but prices eventually correct. FACSET is one of the leading providers of software, research, analytical tools, and data for investment professionals. They publish a … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Earnings, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Most Bearish Reading in History

The crowds are often wrong at extremes, but there are a few groups of traders who have a proven track record of calling market turning points. They are the “smart money.” When smart money positions become extreme, everyone should pay … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

12-31-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

The December 31, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bearish Market Breadth

Market breadth is one of the most reliable leading indicators of market reversals and major market turning points; breadth looks particularly ugly right now. There are many different ways to look at market breadth; we will review several in this … Continue reading

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Posted in Article Links - External, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment