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Category Archives: Fundamental Analysis
China’s Prices & Profits Diverge
I have written several articles about China recently, but I have just begun to scratch the surface of the problems. Data suggests that China’s equity market is still massively overvalued, even after the recent correction. In a recent MarkeWatch article … Continue reading
Troubling Divergence Between Stock and Commodity Prices
It is logical to expect that commodity prices and equity prices are causally linked. It is simply a question of supply and demand. In an expanding economy, demand for commodities should increase and in a contracting economy, demand should decrease. … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast June 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast May 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – May 2015
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the May 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.
Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
Leave a comment
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – March 2015
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the March 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – July 2015
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the July 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.