Category Archives: Fundamental Analysis

8 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge

Posted on January 1, 2016 by

Happy New Year! As I mentioned in my holiday greeting, I had to deal with a number of issues in 2015 that limited my research (and writing) efforts. As a result, I had a backlog of several important market-related insights … Continue reading →

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Declining Earnings in an Overvalued Market

Posted on January 1, 2016 by

Earnings are the single most important factor in stock valuation. Stock prices may diverge temporarily from earnings, but prices eventually correct. FACSET is one of the leading providers of software, research, analytical tools, and data for investment professionals. They publish a … Continue reading →

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Commodity Bloodbath in 2015

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

In July 2015, I wrote a post on the linkage between commodity prices and stock prices during five periods of declining commodity prices in the past 35 years: 1980-1982, 1984-1986, 1997-1998, 2008-2009, and 2014-201. I concluded that four out of … Continue reading →

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U.S. Manufacturing Sector Now Shrinking

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

In November of 2015, I reported that U.S. Manufacturing was at Recession Levels, but the news has gotten worse. The Manufacturing sector is now shrinking.

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Global Trade at Recession Levels

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

My last two posts focused on bearish divergences in the equity markets, but there are several fundamental factors that are equally bearish. The following article focuses on global trade. 

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Transportation Sector – Ominous

Posted on December 30, 2015 by

I wrote an article yesterday about the growing divergence between the junk bond and equity markets. There is a second divergence within the equity market that is equally ominous.

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Junk Bond Meltdown

Posted on December 29, 2015 by

I initially discussed the implications of widening junk bond spreads in a prescient September 2015 post titled “Widening Junk Bond Spreads: Bull Market in Peril,” which was inspired by a MarketWatch article titled “Junk Bond Market: Danger Ahead,” written by … Continue reading →

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Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2015

Posted on December 22, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment