Category Archives: Market Timing

8 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge

Posted on January 1, 2016 by

Happy New Year! As I mentioned in my holiday greeting, I had to deal with a number of issues in 2015 that limited my research (and writing) efforts. As a result, I had a backlog of several important market-related insights … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Declining Earnings in an Overvalued Market

Posted on January 1, 2016 by

Earnings are the single most important factor in stock valuation. Stock prices may diverge temporarily from earnings, but prices eventually correct. FACSET is one of the leading providers of software, research, analytical tools, and data for investment professionals. They publish a … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Earnings, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Most Bearish Reading in History

Posted on January 1, 2016 by

The crowds are often wrong at extremes, but there are a few groups of traders who have a proven track record of calling market turning points. They are the “smart money.” When smart money positions become extreme, everyone should pay … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

12-31-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

The December 31, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bearish Market Breadth

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

Market breadth is one of the most reliable leading indicators of market reversals and major market turning points; breadth looks particularly ugly right now. There are many different ways to look at market breadth; we will review several in this … Continue reading →

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Commodity Bloodbath in 2015

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

In July 2015, I wrote a post on the linkage between commodity prices and stock prices during five periods of declining commodity prices in the past 35 years: 1980-1982, 1984-1986, 1997-1998, 2008-2009, and 2014-201. I concluded that four out of … Continue reading →

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U.S. Manufacturing Sector Now Shrinking

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

In November of 2015, I reported that U.S. Manufacturing was at Recession Levels, but the news has gotten worse. The Manufacturing sector is now shrinking.

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Global Trade at Recession Levels

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

My last two posts focused on bearish divergences in the equity markets, but there are several fundamental factors that are equally bearish. The following article focuses on global trade. 

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