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Category Archives: Market Timing
2013 AAR Strategy Results
The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. It is one of … Continue reading
12-31-2013 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The December 31, 2013 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast – November 2013
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the November 2013 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.
11-30-2013 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The November 30, 2013 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
Market Breadth Divergence Update
On Sunday November 17th, I posted an article that identified headwinds for the equity market. I explained that five independent leading indicators all pointed to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Trade Analysis
Tagged advance decline line, CBOE Skew index, cumulative advance-decline line, divergence, double divergence, gamma weighted SOIR, market breadth, market sentiment, market timing, market top, price-to-sales ratio, put-call ratio, technical analysis, trade, trader
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Five Headwinds for Equities
I typically release new posts on Thursdays, but market conditions justified an accelerated schedule this week. Five independent leading indicators all point to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, a very … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Technical Analysis
Tagged advance decline line, CBOE Skew index, cumulative advance-decline line, divergence, double divergence, gamma weighted SOIR, market breadth, market sentiment, market timing, market top, price-to-sales ratio, put-call ratio, technical analysis, trade, trader
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Recession Model Forecast 11-01-2013
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast 12-01-2013
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2013.