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- Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022 | Trader Edge on New AI Volatility Edge Platform
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- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2022
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Category Archives: In-Depth Article
Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading
Posted in AI Volatility Edge, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, Brian Johnson, diffusion index, recession forecast, recession modeling, Recession Slack Index, TraderEdge
1 Comment
Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast June 2020, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2020
I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2020, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Gold Still Overvalued by 23.5%
I read an interesting article by Neil Azous in the December 2015 issue of Modern Trader (“Has the Golden Moment Passed?”) that inspired me to do some further research into modeling gold prices. The resulting research greatly enhanced my understanding … Continue reading
Five Headwinds for Equities
I typically release new posts on Thursdays, but market conditions justified an accelerated schedule this week. Five independent leading indicators all point to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, a very … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Technical Analysis
Tagged advance decline line, CBOE Skew index, cumulative advance-decline line, divergence, double divergence, gamma weighted SOIR, market breadth, market sentiment, market timing, market top, price-to-sales ratio, put-call ratio, technical analysis, trade, trader
2 Comments
A Dual Purpose Trend Indicator
Identifying trends and recognizing overbought and oversold conditions are the main objectives of technical analysis. This article introduces a new tool called the Volatility Adjusted Slope Indicator (VASI) that does all three simultaneously. The VASI is standardized, which means that … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2022
In the past, I published the Trader Edge Recession Model every month. After finalizing and rolling out the 32-bit and 64-bit versions of a new comprehensive option volatility forecasting platform called AI Volatility Edge (AIVE) and publishing my latest book … Continue reading →