Category Archives: In-Depth Article

Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2020

I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2020

I made a number of significant improvements to the recession model in January of 2020. If you missed the January recession model post, or if you would like to review the improvements to the models, please revisit the Recession Model … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Capital Discussions Group Presentation Video

Below is the recorded video of an online presentation that I gave to the Capital Discussions group. The presentation demonstrates how to use the spreadsheet tools that accompany my new in-depth (100+ page) article: Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management: … Continue reading

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Posted in Futures, In-Depth Article, Options, Recommended Reading, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Video | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gold Still Overvalued by 23.5%

I read an interesting article by Neil Azous in the December 2015 issue of Modern Trader (“Has the Golden Moment Passed?”) that inspired me to do some further research into modeling gold prices. The resulting research greatly enhanced my understanding … Continue reading

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Posted in Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Five Headwinds for Equities

I typically release new posts on Thursdays, but market conditions justified an accelerated schedule this week. Five independent leading indicators all point to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, a very … Continue reading

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

A Dual Purpose Trend Indicator

Identifying trends and recognizing overbought and oversold conditions are the main objectives of technical analysis.  This article introduces a new tool called the Volatility Adjusted Slope Indicator (VASI) that does all three simultaneously.  The VASI is standardized, which means that … Continue reading

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Posted in AmiBroker Code, COT Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The Deadly Double Divergence

Would you be interested in an indicator that has signaled ten market tops since 1966 without a single false signal?  I read about such an indicator in an article titled “Double Divergences in the Advance-Decline Line,” which appeared in the … Continue reading

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Posted in In-Depth Article, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Pyramid Trading: Enhancing Returns without Increasing Risk

Last week I introduced a framework for adding to losing positions safely.  It is also possible to enhance returns without increasing risk by adding to your winning positions.  The approach is called pyramid trading (not to be confused with pyramid … Continue reading

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