Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2016

Posted on March 19, 2016 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model. This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. I added one new variable with surprisingly strong explanatory power at the end of February 2016. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined together, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 21. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – February 2016

Posted on March 3, 2016 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the February 2016 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST. Continue reading →

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02-29-2016 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on February 29, 2016 by

The February 29, 2016 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2016 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Model Flashes US Recession Warning: 02-01-2016

Posted on February 6, 2016 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model. This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. The current 20-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined together, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 20. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 20 variables. Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – January 2016

Posted on February 4, 2016 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the January 2016 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST. Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

01-29-2016 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on January 29, 2016 by

The January 29, 2016 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy page.

The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. The strategy was inspired by the Ivy League portfolio and uses trend and technical filters to reduce downside risk.

If none of the five candidates pass their respective trade filters, the AAR strategy remains in cash for the month.   Stop-loss orders are used on every trade to control losses and to facilitate position sizing and risk management.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2016 - Trading Insights, LLC - All Rights Reserved.

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2016

Posted on January 24, 2016 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2015. Over the past 12 months, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession model (including one at the end of December). This allowed me to cull three of the original independent variables with the weakest historical performance and most questionable cause and effect recessionary influence. The current 20-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust.

Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined together, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources. After the latest additions and deletions, the total number of explanatory recession model variables is now 20. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 20 variables. Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

2015 AAR Strategy Results

Posted on January 23, 2016 by

The following article reports and evaluates the 2015 results of the AAR strategy. The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and Asia, emerging market stocks, U.S. Treasury Notes, and commodities. It is one of the 25+ proprietary strategies that I trade in my personal account and the only strategy that Trader Edge currently offers on a subscription basis. Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment