Recession Model Forecast: 09-01-2017

Posted on September 23, 2017 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through August 2017. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

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Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2017

Posted on August 27, 2017 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2017. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

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Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2017

Posted on July 23, 2017 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2017. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

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Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2017

Posted on June 17, 2017 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2017. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

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Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2017

Posted on May 29, 2017 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2017. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

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Capital Discussions Group Presentation Video

Posted on April 24, 2017 by

OSHRM200x300Below is the recorded video of an online presentation that I gave to the Capital Discussions group. The presentation demonstrates how to use the spreadsheet tools that accompany my new in-depth (100+ page) article: Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management: An In-Depth Article Introducing an Interactive Analytical Framework for Hedging Option Strategy Risk. The presentation also provides an overview of the principal topics in the article. I suggest using the full-screen option (if available) to view the video.

Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management presents a comprehensive analytical framework and accompanying spreadsheet tools for managing and hedging option strategy risk. I developed these practical techniques to hedge the unique and often overlooked risks associated with trading option strategies. These revolutionary new tools can be applied to any option strategy, in any market environment. The Kindle ($9.99) and Print ($14.99) versions are both available on Amazon.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2017 Trading Insights, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Posted in Futures, In-Depth Article, Options, Recommended Reading, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Video | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2017

Posted on April 24, 2017 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2017. The current 21-variable model has a diverse set of explanatory variables and is quite robust. Each of the explanatory variables has predictive power individually; when combined, the group of indicators is able to identify early recession warnings from a wide range of diverse market-based, fundamental, technical, and economic sources.

Several of the explanatory variables are market-based. These variables respond very quickly to changing market conditions and are never revised. This makes the Trader Edge recession model much more responsive than other recession models. The current and historical data in this report reflect the current model configuration with all 21 variables. Continue reading →

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Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management: Video 3

Posted on April 6, 2017 by

OSHRM200x300The following is the third and last in a series of videos that demonstrate how to use the spreadsheet tools that accompany my new in-depth (100+ page) article: Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management: An In-Depth Article Introducing an Interactive Analytical Framework for Hedging Option Strategy Risk. The Kindle ($9.99) and Print ($14.99) versions are both available on Amazon.

Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management presents a comprehensive analytical framework and accompanying spreadsheet tools for managing and hedging option strategy risk. I developed these practical techniques to hedge the unique and often overlooked risks associated with trading option strategies. These revolutionary new tools can be applied to any option strategy, in any market environment.

The following video demonstrates how to use the spreadsheet tools that accompanies my new article (Option Strategy Hedging & Risk Management) to identify the lowest-cost black-swan hedge using VIX call options and/or put options on the underlying security.

Brian Johnson

Copyright 2017 Trading Insights, LLC. All rights reserved.

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Posted in Options, Recommended Reading, Risk Management, Video | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment