Tag Archives: recession

China’s Equity Futures Volume Drops 99 Percent

Posted on September 8, 2015 by

In this morning’s Bloomberg.com article titled “China Just Killed the World’s Biggest Stock-Index Futures Market,” Kyoungwha Kim reported that “Volumes in the country’s CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index futures sank to record lows on Tuesday after falling 99 percent from … Continue reading →

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“Recession” – Highest Interest Since 2009: Google Trends

Posted on September 6, 2015 by

When forecasting recessions and market reversals, sometimes it helps to think outside the box. Everyone knows about technical indicators and economic data. Some traders follow market breadth and sentiment, but here is one that you may not follow.

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Systematic Strategy Favors Cash Over Stocks

Posted on September 1, 2015 by

Volatility has increased significantly in the last few weeks and traders are now in panic mode. The best way to avoid panic is to use a simple, systematic, back-tested strategy that has proven to to be successful over decades. In … Continue reading →

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Recession Model Improvements

Posted on November 21, 2012 by

I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October with a discussion of Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend index, which I used as a foundation for two new recession forecasting models. Last week I explained the potential limitations of forecasting … Continue reading →

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New Probit Models: U.S. Recession Risk is Currently Low

Posted on November 8, 2012 by

Last week I wrote about using statistical tools to forecast recessions and referenced James Picerno, who provided the inspiration for this idea through his articles on the Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI) and the use of probit models to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, In-Depth Article, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Forecasting Recessions is Easier than Modeling Asset Prices

Posted on October 28, 2012 by

In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Global Manufacturing Continues to Decline in September

Posted on October 16, 2012 by

JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted again in September, with a reading of 48.9; PMI values below 50 signify contraction and PMI values above 50 indicate expansion. The September Global PMI was slightly higher than August’s PMI of 48.1, indicating … Continue reading →

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