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Tag Archives: recession
When forecasting recessions and market reversals, sometimes it helps to think outside the box. Everyone knows about technical indicators and economic data. Some traders follow market breadth and sentiment, but here is one that you may not follow.
Volatility has increased significantly in the last few weeks and traders are now in panic mode. The best way to avoid panic is to use a simple, systematic, back-tested strategy that has proven to to be successful over decades. In … Continue reading
I introduced the topic of recession forecasting in late October with a discussion of Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend index, which I used as a foundation for two new recession forecasting models. Last week I explained the potential limitations of forecasting … Continue reading
Last week I wrote about using statistical tools to forecast recessions and referenced James Picerno, who provided the inspiration for this idea through his articles on the Capital Spectator Economic Trend Index (CS-ETI) and the use of probit models to … Continue reading
In a recent post titled “ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index,” I noted the apparent inconsistency between the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) current recession call and the recent strength of ECRI’s proprietary weekly leading indicators series. In response to … Continue reading
JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI contracted again in September, with a reading of 48.9; PMI values below 50 signify contraction and PMI values above 50 indicate expansion. The September Global PMI was slightly higher than August’s PMI of 48.1, indicating … Continue reading