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- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022
- Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022 | Trader Edge on New AI Volatility Edge Platform
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- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2022
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Author Archives: Brian Johnson
11-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The November 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis
Tagged asset allocation, asset allocation rotational strategy, asset allocation strategy, Ivy League Portfolio, rotatinal strategy, trade, Trader Edge
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US Manufacturing Data at Recession Levels
I read an interesting article by Jill Mislinski on AdvisorPerspectives.com. The article was titled “Empire State Manufacturing Declined for Fourth Consecutive Month.” The takeaway from the article is that US Manufacturing is slowing at a rate not seen since the … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management
Tagged Canada, China, Japan, recession, US Dollar, US Manufacturing
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Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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More Warnings Signs in China
The manipulated equity markets in China have rebounded (which is what happens when you restrict selling), but the problems continue. China’s exports and imports have been declining for months, which is further evidence of recession and directly contradicts the “official” … Continue reading
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2015
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the October 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.
Earnings and Revenues Decline While Prices Rise
I have written a number of recent articles about the troubling state of the equity markets. There have been many causes for concern: technical, fundamental, valuation, divergences, and global risks, among others. All of these are important, but none are … Continue reading
Posted in Earnings, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management
Tagged divergence, earnings, FactSet, P/E ratios, revenues
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Extreme Divergence: Negative Equity Returns Ahead
Many traders use technical and/or fundamental data, but few traders have discovered the unique benefits of using sentiment data in their investment process. Sentiment data attempts to quantify the emotional mood of investors and traders and can be used as … Continue reading
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – November 2015
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the November 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.