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- Brian Johnson on Trading Option Volatility Featured in Stocks & Commodities Magazine
- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022
- Recession Model Forecast: 10-1-2022 | Trader Edge on New AI Volatility Edge Platform
- Steve Ginn on Trading Option Volatility Featured in Stocks & Commodities Magazine
- John C on Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2022
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Author Archives: Brian Johnson
Recession Model Forecast 08-01-2014
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2014. Please note that two new explanatory variables were added to the Trader Edge Recession Models in July. For more information, … Continue reading
07-31-2014 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The July 31, 2014 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – July 2014
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the July 2014 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.
Recommended Reading 07-24-2014
Readers repeatedly ask me for book and article recommendations, especially new traders who are interested in learning more about trading and investing. Here are four new book recommendations from my personal finance library, all written by Jack D. Schwager. A … Continue reading
Two New Improvements to Trader Edge Recession Models
After personally suffering the costly effects of ECRI’s notoriously ill-advised recession call in 2012, I embarked on the journey to create my own recession models. Since developing the initial models in late 2012, I have published the model forecasts shortly … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast 07-01-2014
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2014.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast June 2014, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – June 2014
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the June 2014 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT — one day early due to the fourth of July … Continue reading
Overcome the Odds
I heard something remarkable this morning that reminded me just how ill-suited the human brain is for making investment decisions. The inherent decision-making deficiencies that we all share are well documented in decades of behavioral economics and behavioral finance studies, … Continue reading →