Category Archives: Economic Indicators

Model Flashes US Recession Warning: 02-01-2016

Posted on February 6, 2016 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading →

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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – January 2016

Posted on February 4, 2016 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the January 2016 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2016

Posted on January 24, 2016 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2015. Over the past 12 months, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – December 2015

Posted on January 7, 2016 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the December 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dominos Beginning to Fall

Posted on January 4, 2016 by

I wrote two series of cautionary articles, one in the past few days, and the other in September 2015. Several of the earlier articles referenced China, which is again in focus due to the 7% plunge on Monday. China’s manipulated … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

8 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge

Posted on January 1, 2016 by

Happy New Year! As I mentioned in my holiday greeting, I had to deal with a number of issues in 2015 that limited my research (and writing) efforts. As a result, I had a backlog of several important market-related insights … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Commodity Bloodbath in 2015

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

In July 2015, I wrote a post on the linkage between commodity prices and stock prices during five periods of declining commodity prices in the past 35 years: 1980-1982, 1984-1986, 1997-1998, 2008-2009, and 2014-201. I concluded that four out of … Continue reading →

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U.S. Manufacturing Sector Now Shrinking

Posted on December 31, 2015 by

In November of 2015, I reported that U.S. Manufacturing was at Recession Levels, but the news has gotten worse. The Manufacturing sector is now shrinking.

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