Category Archives: Economic Indicators

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast: February 2013

Posted on March 7, 2013 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the February 2013 non-farm payroll data, which will be released tomorrow morning.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Extreme Divergence: Earnings and Equity Prices

Posted on February 20, 2013 by

Earnings are the ultimate driver of stock prices and the divergence between earnings expectations and equity prices has become even more extreme.  Given that the market is technically overbought, implied volatility is extremely low, the CBOE Skew Index is over … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

U.S. Recession Risk Still Low in January

Posted on February 7, 2013 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2013. If you are new to Trader Edge and would like some additional background on the development of the Trader Edge … Continue reading →

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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast: January 2013

Posted on January 31, 2013 by

I introduced a simple non-farm payroll forecasting model a few months ago.  Over the past month, I have developed a much more sophisticated model that aggregates the forecasts for three neural network models, each with a unique architecture.  The aggregate … Continue reading →

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Real GDP Growth Negative in Q4 2012

Posted on January 30, 2013 by

Earlier this week, I posted the Q4 2012 GDP forecast from a new aggregate neural network model.  The model forecast was +2.2%, but the first official estimate of GDP growth in Q4 2012 was only -0.1%, which was the first … Continue reading →

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Q4 2012 Earnings Preview

Posted on January 13, 2013 by

Earnings season is here again, which provides a timely reminder that earnings are the ultimate driver of stock prices.  The following article explores the recent trend in equity prices and earnings estimates.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

U.S. Recession Risk Drops Sharply in December

Posted on January 7, 2013 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2012. If you are new to Trader Edge and would like some additional background on the development of the Trader Edge … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

No Non-Farm Payroll Forecast for December

Posted on January 3, 2013 by

For the past few months I have used a systematic model to forecast an estimate of the monthly non-farm payroll data, which is one of the most influential economic data releases.  Unfortunately, the Briefing.com current week’s economic data and consensus … Continue reading →

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