Tag Archives: earnings estimates

Earnings-Price Divergence Always Followed by Negative Returns

I recently wrote about the extreme divergence between earnings and equity prices, but did not have access to comprehensive historical earnings data until recently.  In the article above, I referenced the past few years of earnings data, which was provided … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

Extreme Divergence: Earnings and Equity Prices

Earnings are the ultimate driver of stock prices and the divergence between earnings expectations and equity prices has become even more extreme.  Given that the market is technically overbought, implied volatility is extremely low, the CBOE Skew Index is over … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Q4 2012 Earnings Preview

Earnings season is here again, which provides a timely reminder that earnings are the ultimate driver of stock prices.  The following article explores the recent trend in equity prices and earnings estimates.

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Q3 2012 Earnings Preview

With the daily deluge of new data, it is easy to lose the forest for the trees.  When in doubt, focus on earnings, the ultimate driver of stock prices.  If I could choose one statistic to know in advance, it … Continue reading

Share
Posted in COT Analysis, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Prices and Earnings Diverge

According to FactSet, since June 1, the price of the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.4%, while the year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q3 has declined from +3.5% to -1.6%.  In other words, while analysts were reducing their earnings … Continue reading

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment