Category Archives: Fundamental Analysis

Recession Risk Jumps: 09-01-2015

Posted on September 15, 2015 by

Over the past few months, I have written numerous articles about the increasing downside risk in the equity market. After the bottom fell out of the stock market last month, I have been particularly interested in examining the recession model … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

More Evidence of Negative GDP Growth in China

Posted on September 8, 2015 by

In this morning’s MarketWatch article titled “China exports fall for second month in a row,” Grace Zhy, Mark Magnier, and Rose Yu  report that year-over-year exports and imports in China fell by 5.5% and 13.8% in August and by 8.3% … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – August 2015

Posted on September 3, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the August 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

China’s Economic Growth is Actually Negative

Posted on September 2, 2015 by

In Sue Chang’s MarketWatch article last week titled “China’s economy may be in worse shape than people think,” the author quotes analyst David Straszheim at Evercore ISI: “Our proprietary Synthetic Growth Index (SGI) fell 1.1% month-on-month in July, and was … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2015

Posted on August 27, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Alarming Report from ECRI

Posted on August 26, 2015 by

Given the free-fall decline in worldwide equity markets, any new insight into the global economy is particularly valuable right now. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) published a report last week with the rather innocuous title “A Shrinking Trade Pie.” … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Negative US Equity Returns Over the Next Decade

Posted on August 10, 2015 by

In a recent post, I referenced Mark Hulbert’s article for MarketWatch that suggested the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.”  That may be wishful thinking. Jesse Felder’s recent column titled “The Warren … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Scary Long-Term Outlook for US Equity Returns

Posted on August 8, 2015 by

According to a recent Mark Hulbert article for MarketWatch, the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.” I do not put much stock in long-term market prognostications, but I do believe in long-term … Continue reading →

Share
Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment