Tag Archives: ECRI

Alarming Report from ECRI

Posted on August 26, 2015 by

Given the free-fall decline in worldwide equity markets, any new insight into the global economy is particularly valuable right now. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) published a report last week with the rather innocuous title “A Shrinking Trade Pie.” … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

ECRI Cries Wolf – Again

Posted on May 30, 2013 by

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting, but they had one spectacular and very public forecasting failure in the fall of 2011 – when they predicted an imminent U.S. recession. Until that … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ECRI Betrayed by Their Own Index

Posted on October 11, 2012 by

Predicting recessions is notoriously difficult.  However, there is at least one organization that has been successful in the past.  The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting. According to The Economist magazine (in … Continue reading →

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ECRI: “We’re in a Recession”

Posted on July 16, 2012 by

In a recent interview for Bloomberg, Lakshman Achuthan, the co-founder and COO of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the world’s leading authority on business cycles, asserts that “we’re in a recession.” A video of the interview is available on … Continue reading →

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Market Diverges From Economic Data

Posted on June 25, 2012 by

Economic releases were mixed last week.  Building permits came in stronger than expected, but are still at anemic levels.  Leading indicators were up 0.3% last month, which was also stronger than expected. Unfortunately, the ECRI weekly leading indicator (WLI) declined … Continue reading →

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A Very Bad Week for the Market

Posted on June 4, 2012 by

I have been focusing on providing a series of in-depth, educational articles to provide a foundation for future commentary, but the economic news was so bad last week that I felt compelled to address the current market environment.  The following … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Summary Market Indicator Score | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments