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Category Archives: Market Commentary
01-29-2016 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The January 29, 2016 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis
Tagged asset allocation, asset allocation rotational strategy, asset allocation strategy, Ivy League Portfolio, rotatinal strategy, trade, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2015. Over the past 12 months, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast December 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – December 2015
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the December 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.
Dominos Beginning to Fall
I wrote two series of cautionary articles, one in the past few days, and the other in September 2015. Several of the earlier articles referenced China, which is again in focus due to the 7% plunge on Monday. China’s manipulated … Continue reading
8 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge
Happy New Year! As I mentioned in my holiday greeting, I had to deal with a number of issues in 2015 that limited my research (and writing) efforts. As a result, I had a backlog of several important market-related insights … Continue reading
Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Technical Analysis
Tagged bearish, divergence, earnings, global trade, Junk bond spreads, manufacturing, market breadth, overvalued, P/E ratios, Put/Call ratio
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Declining Earnings in an Overvalued Market
Earnings are the single most important factor in stock valuation. Stock prices may diverge temporarily from earnings, but prices eventually correct. FACSET is one of the leading providers of software, research, analytical tools, and data for investment professionals. They publish a … Continue reading
Most Bearish Reading in History
The crowds are often wrong at extremes, but there are a few groups of traders who have a proven track record of calling market turning points. They are the “smart money.” When smart money positions become extreme, everyone should pay … Continue reading
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – January 2016
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the January 2016 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.