Category Archives: Market Timing

07-31-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on August 1, 2015 by

The July 31, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Troubling Divergence Between Stock and Commodity Prices

Posted on July 27, 2015 by

It is logical to expect that commodity prices and equity prices are causally linked. It is simply a question of supply and demand. In an expanding economy, demand for commodities should increase and in a contracting economy, demand should decrease. … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2015

Posted on July 23, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

China’s Make-Believe Stock Market

Posted on July 12, 2015 by

I continue to be shocked by ever new article that I read on China. I found a new tidbit of information in the following Bloomberg Business article by Paul Smith: “China’s Stock Market Selloff Explained in Six Charts.” In reading … Continue reading →

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Oil Futures Down Over 7% Yesterday

Posted on July 7, 2015 by

In addition to posts related to my own research, I am beginning to pass along links to timely articles that are important in the context of the market or offer some new insights. For each article, I will also include … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recommended Reading | 1 Comment

Desperate Moves in China

Posted on July 6, 2015 by

Now that my new book has been published, I am beginning to catch up on my very long list of outstanding research projects. In addition, I am also finding more time to read timely articles, a few of which I … Continue reading →

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06-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on June 30, 2015 by

The June 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2015

Posted on June 11, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment