Category Archives: Market Timing

08-29-2014 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on August 29, 2014 by

The August 29, 2014 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Equity Market Snapshot 08-21-2014

Posted on August 21, 2014 by

There has been a lot of confusion lately regarding the direction of the market and the risk of a major correction.  The following article applies several different technical indicators to the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) in both the daily and … Continue reading →

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Posted in Equity Market Snapshot, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Overcome the Odds

Posted on August 14, 2014 by

I heard something remarkable this morning that reminded me just how ill-suited the human brain is for making investment decisions. The inherent decision-making deficiencies that we all share are well documented in decades of behavioral economics and behavioral finance studies, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Recession Model Forecast 08-01-2014

Posted on August 7, 2014 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2014. Please note that two new explanatory variables were added to the Trader Edge Recession Models in July.  For more information, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

07-31-2014 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on July 31, 2014 by

The July 31, 2014 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – July 2014

Posted on July 31, 2014 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the July 2014 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Two New Improvements to Trader Edge Recession Models

Posted on July 17, 2014 by

After personally suffering the costly effects of ECRI’s notoriously ill-advised recession call in 2012, I embarked on the journey to create my own recession models. Since developing the initial models in late 2012, I have published the model forecasts shortly … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Recession Model Forecast 07-01-2014

Posted on July 10, 2014 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2014.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment