Category Archives: Recession Forecasting Model

Recession Forecasting Model

Recession Model Forecast 09-01-2013

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through August 2013.

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Recession Risk Still Low in July

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2013.

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Use Economic Filters to Reduce Your Strategy Losses

When developing strategies, many systematic traders focus exclusively on technical analysis, with their primary focus on derivatives of price and volume.  A few traders add sentiment and breadth statistics to further enhance their models.  I suggest going one step further: … Continue reading

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Recession Risk Remained Low In June

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2013.

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Recession Risk Remained Low in May

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2013.

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ECRI Cries Wolf – Again

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is one of the leaders in business cycle forecasting, but they had one spectacular and very public forecasting failure in the fall of 2011 – when they predicted an imminent U.S. recession. Until that … Continue reading

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Recession Models Indicate Risk Remained Low in April

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2013.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

March Recession Model Forecast Increases Slightly

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2013.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment