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Category Archives: Risk Management
02-29-2016 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The February 29, 2016 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis
Tagged asset allocation, asset allocation rotational strategy, asset allocation strategy, Ivy League Portfolio, rotatinal strategy, trade, Trader Edge
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Model Flashes US Recession Warning: 02-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast January 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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01-29-2016 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The January 29, 2016 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis
Tagged asset allocation, asset allocation rotational strategy, asset allocation strategy, Ivy League Portfolio, rotatinal strategy, trade, Trader Edge
Leave a comment
Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2015. Over the past 12 months, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast December 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
1 Comment
2015 AAR Strategy Results
The following article reports and evaluates the 2015 results of the AAR strategy. The AAR strategy is a conservative, long-only, asset allocation strategy that rotates monthly among five large asset classes: large-cap U.S. stocks, developed country stocks in Europe and … Continue reading
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis
Tagged asset allocation, asset allocation rotational strategy, asset allocation strategy, Ivy League Portfolio, rotatinal strategy, trade, Trader Edge
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Dominos Beginning to Fall
I wrote two series of cautionary articles, one in the past few days, and the other in September 2015. Several of the earlier articles referenced China, which is again in focus due to the 7% plunge on Monday. China’s manipulated … Continue reading
8 Recent Cautionary Articles on Trader Edge
Happy New Year! As I mentioned in my holiday greeting, I had to deal with a number of issues in 2015 that limited my research (and writing) efforts. As a result, I had a backlog of several important market-related insights … Continue reading
Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Breadth, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Options, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Technical Analysis
Tagged bearish, divergence, earnings, global trade, Junk bond spreads, manufacturing, market breadth, overvalued, P/E ratios, Put/Call ratio
1 Comment
Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading →