Category Archives: Risk Management

Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2015

Posted on December 22, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – November 2015

Posted on December 3, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the November 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

11-30-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on November 30, 2015 by

The November 30, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

US Manufacturing Data at Recession Levels

Posted on November 18, 2015 by

I read an interesting article by Jill Mislinski on AdvisorPerspectives.com. The article was titled “Empire State Manufacturing Declined for Fourth Consecutive Month.” The takeaway from the article is that US Manufacturing is slowing at a rate not seen since the … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2015

Posted on November 18, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – October 2015

Posted on November 5, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the October 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Earnings and Revenues Decline While Prices Rise

Posted on November 1, 2015 by

I have written a number of recent articles about the troubling state of the equity markets. There have been many causes for concern: technical, fundamental, valuation, divergences, and global risks, among others. All of these are important, but none are … Continue reading →

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Posted in Earnings, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Extreme Divergence: Negative Equity Returns Ahead

Posted on November 1, 2015 by

Many traders use technical and/or fundamental data, but few traders have discovered the unique benefits of using sentiment data in their investment process. Sentiment data attempts to quantify the emotional mood of investors and traders and can be used as … Continue reading →

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Posted in Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments