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Tag Archives: diffusion index
Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 04-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast March 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
1 Comment
Recession Model Forecast: 03-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
2 Comments
Model Flashes US Recession Warning: 02-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through January 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast January 2016, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 01-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through December 2015. Over the past 12 months, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast December 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
1 Comment
Recession Model Forecast: 12-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast November 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 11-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator; I added two new explanatory variables in … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2016
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2016. Throughout 2015, I added a number of new economic and market-based variables with very strong explanatory power to the recession … Continue reading →