Tag Archives: market valuation

Bulls Beware

Posted on May 1, 2016 by

I have been working daily on designing and backtesting various option strategies, which will continue to be my focus for the foreseeable future. As a result, the time available for writing new posts has been and will continue to be … Continue reading →

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Posted in Earnings, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Relative Strength, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Three Things that Move the Market

Posted on August 29, 2013 by

The equity market seems complex, but it is really much simpler than you think.  There are only three things that move the market.  The following article will identify the three cause and effect relationships and use this framework to examine … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Market Timing, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

S&P 500 Overvalued Based on Price to Sales Ratio

Posted on May 23, 2013 by

In a recent article “Earnings-Price Divergence Always Followed by Negative Returns,” I noted that every extreme divergence (-20% or lower) between year-over-year corporate profits and equity prices in the past 50 plus years was followed by negative year-over-year equity returns.  … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment