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Category Archives: Market Timing
GDP Model Forecast Improves in March
In January, I introduced a new aggregate neural network model that I developed to forecast the seasonally-adjusted, annualized, real rate of change in U.S. GDP. The GDP growth rate is only reported quarterly, but the model provides a new rolling … Continue reading
March Recession Model Forecast Increases Slightly
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through March 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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GDP Model Suggests Faster Growth
In January, I introduced a new aggregate neural network model that I developed to forecast the seasonally-adjusted, annualized, real rate of change in U.S. GDP. The GDP growth rate is only reported quarterly, but the model provides a rolling 3-month … Continue reading
February Recession Model Forecast a Surprise
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through February 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast February 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Use Relative Strength to Confirm Trend Direction
In previous articles, I explained how to make market timing decisions with relative strength and how to use relative strength to identify market trends. Both of these articles used relative strength to forecast trend changes in the equity market and … Continue reading
Earnings-Price Divergence Always Followed by Negative Returns
I recently wrote about the extreme divergence between earnings and equity prices, but did not have access to comprehensive historical earnings data until recently. In the article above, I referenced the past few years of earnings data, which was provided … Continue reading →