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Yearly Archives: 2014
12-31-2014 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The December 31, 2014 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis
Tagged asset allocation, asset allocation rotational strategy, asset allocation strategy, Ivy League Portfolio, rotatinal strategy, trade, Trader Edge
2 Comments
Seasons Greetings from Trader Edge
Seasons greetings from Trader Edge. I hope that you have found some of the Trader Edge articles to be useful this year. I have enjoyed corresponding with many of you throughout 2014 and I appreciate all of the feedback on … Continue reading
Recession Model Forecast 12-01-2014
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through November 2014. Please note that two new explanatory variables were added to the Trader Edge Recession Models in July and one explanatory … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2014, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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11-28-2014 AAR Strategy Update Posted
The November 28, 2014 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page. If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading
OptionSlam.com Discount for Trader Edge Readers
I am currently writing my second book on options. The new book will introduce an innovative framework and interactive tool set for designing and optimizing option strategies to profit from earnings announcements. The interactive spreadsheets that will accompany the upcoming … Continue reading
Unexpected Probability Parallels
A few weeks ago I wrote an article on Trader Edge titled “Political Diversions”, which introduced two sites with different but effective methodologies for determining probabilistic election forecasts. One of those sites was Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com, which is arguably the … Continue reading
Posted in Options
Tagged election probabilities, FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver, option payoff probabilities, Z-score
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Recession Model Forecast 11-01-2014
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2014. Please note that two new explanatory variables were added to the Trader Edge Recession Models in July and one explanatory … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2014, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – November 2014
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the November 2014 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST.