Author Archives: Brian Johnson

About Brian Johnson

I have been an investment professional for over 30 years. I worked as a fixed income portfolio manager, personally managing over $13 billion in assets for institutional clients. I was also the President of a financial consulting and software development firm, developing artificial intelligence based forecasting and risk management systems for institutional investment managers. I am now a full-time proprietary trader in options, futures, stocks, and ETFs using both algorithmic and discretionary trading strategies. In addition to my professional investment experience, I designed and taught courses in financial derivatives for both MBA and undergraduate business programs on a part-time basis for a number of years. I have also written four books on options and derivative strategies.

Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2015

Posted on August 27, 2015 by

The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Alarming Report from ECRI

Posted on August 26, 2015 by

Given the free-fall decline in worldwide equity markets, any new insight into the global economy is particularly valuable right now. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) published a report last week with the rather innocuous title “A Shrinking Trade Pie.” … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dow Theory Sell Signal

Posted on August 24, 2015 by

Given the dramatic market decline in worldwide equity markets last week, Mark Hulbert’s recent MarketWatch column titled “The Dow Theory just flashed a sell signal” was especially timely.

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Posted in Article Links - External, Market Commentary, Market Sentiment, Relative Strength, Risk Management | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Exploiting Earnings Volatility Featured in Stocks & Commodities Magazine

Posted on August 16, 2015 by

My new options book, Exploiting Earnings Volatility: An Innovative New Approach to Evaluating, Optimizing, and Trading Option Strategies to Profit from Earnings Announcements, is featured in the “Books for Traders” section of the current (September 2015) issue of Technical Analysis … Continue reading →

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Negative US Equity Returns Over the Next Decade

Posted on August 10, 2015 by

In a recent post, I referenced Mark Hulbert’s article for MarketWatch that suggested the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.”  That may be wishful thinking. Jesse Felder’s recent column titled “The Warren … Continue reading →

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Scary Long-Term Outlook for US Equity Returns

Posted on August 8, 2015 by

According to a recent Mark Hulbert article for MarketWatch, the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.” I do not put much stock in long-term market prognostications, but I do believe in long-term … Continue reading →

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Posted in Article Links - External, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – July 2015

Posted on August 6, 2015 by

This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the July 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.

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Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, NFP Forecasting Model | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

07-31-2015 AAR Strategy Update Posted

Posted on August 1, 2015 by

The July 31, 2015 AAR Strategy update is now available on the AAR Subscribers page.  If you are not currently a subscriber and would like to learn more about the strategy, there is a detailed description on the AAR Strategy … Continue reading →

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Posted in Asset Allocation Rotational (AAR) Strategy, Market Timing, Relative Strength, Risk Management, Strategy Development, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment