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Category Archives: Economic Indicators
Alarming Report from ECRI
Given the free-fall decline in worldwide equity markets, any new insight into the global economy is particularly valuable right now. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) published a report last week with the rather innocuous title “A Shrinking Trade Pie.” … Continue reading
Negative US Equity Returns Over the Next Decade
In a recent post, I referenced Mark Hulbert’s article for MarketWatch that suggested the “Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade.” That may be wishful thinking. Jesse Felder’s recent column titled “The Warren … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Risk Management, Strategy Development
Tagged Jesse Felder, Negative US Equity Returns Over the Next Decade, Stock market is doomed to rise only 3.5% per year over the next decade, The Warren Buffett way to avoiding major bear markets
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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – July 2015
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the July 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.
Recession Model Forecast: 07-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through June 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast June 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 06-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through May 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model, Risk Management
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast May 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Model Forecast – May 2015
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the May 2015 non-farm payroll data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT.
Recession Model Forecast: 05-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through April 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast April 2015, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast: 08-01-2015
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2015. In January 2015, I created a new explanatory variable for a market-based indicator and I added another new explanatory variable … Continue reading →