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Category Archives: Fundamental Analysis
Recession Model Forecast 11-01-2013
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through October 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Commentary, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast October 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Recession Model Forecast 10-01-2013
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through September 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast September 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast – September 2013
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the September 2013 non-farm payroll data, which would normally be released tomorrow morning, but will probably be delayed due to the Government shutdown.
Recession Model Forecast 09-01-2013
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through August 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast August 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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The Three Things that Move the Market
The equity market seems complex, but it is really much simpler than you think. There are only three things that move the market. The following article will identify the three cause and effect relationships and use this framework to examine … Continue reading
Recession Risk Still Low in July
The following article updates the diffusion index, recession slack index, aggregate recession model, and aggregate peak-trough model through July 2013.
Posted in Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis, Market Timing, Recession Forecasting Model
Tagged aggregate peak-trough model, aggregate recession model, diffusion index, logit model, probit model, recession forecast, recession forecast July 2013, Recession Slack Index, Trader Edge
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Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Forecast – July 2013
This article presents the Trader Edge aggregate neural network model forecast for the July 2013 non-farm payroll data, which will be released tomorrow morning.
Five Headwinds for Equities
I typically release new posts on Thursdays, but market conditions justified an accelerated schedule this week. Five independent leading indicators all point to near-term trouble for equities: a forming divergence in market breadth, an elevated CBOE Skew Index, a very … Continue reading →